{"id":7278,"date":"2020-11-03T18:07:28","date_gmt":"2020-11-03T17:07:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/zurzeit.at\/?p=7278"},"modified":"2020-11-03T18:07:28","modified_gmt":"2020-11-03T17:07:28","slug":"das-orakel-irrt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zurzeit.at\/index.php\/das-orakel-irrt\/","title":{"rendered":"Das Orakel irrt!"},"content":{"rendered":"

Diesmal\u2026<\/h1>\n

Professor Lichtman ist eine beeindruckende Pers\u00f6nlichkeit. Erstens hat der Historiker, der an der Universit\u00e4t in Washington DC unterrichtet, ein System entwickelt, welches es ihm erlaubte die Pr\u00e4sidentschaftswahlen seit 1984 korrekt vorherzusagen.<\/p>\n

Zweitens ist er ein Linker. Er hat f\u00fcr Republikaner getippt, wenn es sein System erforderte bzw. vorhersagte und er hat f\u00fcr Demokraten getippt, wenn es sein System erforderte. Ungeachtet von Anfeindungen durch die eigenen \u201eLeute.\u201c<\/p>\n

Drittens: Er hat Sinn f\u00fcr Humor. Eine wahre Rarit\u00e4t unter Linken.<\/p>\n

Er verwehrt Personen, welche Wetten abschlie\u00dfen wollen, Zugang zu seinen Prognosesystemen. Er wolle nicht mit Betonf\u00fc\u00dfen im Potomac landen\u2026<\/p>\n

Aber wie jedes \u201eOrakel\u201c muss auch Professor Lichtman einmal daneben liegen. Es gibt keine hundertprozentige Trefferquote.<\/p>\n

Und diesmal ist es so weit. Lichtman tippt auf Biden. Die Mehrheit seiner Gradmesser spricht gegen Trump.<\/p>\n

Dabei spricht die Mehrheit der Gradmesser f\u00fcr Trump. Was wiederum demonstriert, dass es auch um die Interpretation der Gradmesser geht.<\/p>\n

Der Verfasser dieser Zeilen ist beruhigt. Er hat keinen Ruf zu verlieren. Dieser ist bereits ruiniert.<\/p>\n

Er hatte 2016 recht und er wird 2020 wieder recht behalten. Denn er hat 2016 beim Brexit danebengetippt. Und erwachte um so erfreuter, als er sah, dass er irrte.<\/p>\n

Der Verfasser nimmt die Lichtman Wette an. Aber bitte ohne Betonf\u00fc\u00dfe in der Drau\u2026<\/p>\n

[Autor: G.B.<\/a> Bild: Wikipedia\/nited States government, Department of State<\/span><\/span><\/a> Lizenz: –<\/span>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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